Republicans in Cali

Salon.com has a long and interesting summary of the GOP's state of affairs on a state by state basis today. While I was interested in some of the reports about states that I had lived in or near, the one on California struck me as clearly off.

CALIFORNIA

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE 2000: Gore 53-42 2008: Obama 61-37
U.S. SENATE 2005: 2D 2009: 2D
U.S. HOUSE 2005: 33D-20 2009: 34D-19
STATE HOUSE 2005: 48D-32 2009: 51D-29
STATE SENATE 2005: 25D-15 2009: 26D-14

In the state that has always the nation's leading indicator of social trends, recent Democratic dominance has been based on the same coalition of urban liberals, suburban social moderates, and minorities that elected Barack Obama last fall. After a few wipeouts, the GOP learned how to survive in that environment and nominated Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose politics would make him a Democrat in most non-coastal states. With the voting population getting less white by the day, there's probably no turning back for California Republicans, though conservatives keep trying. The decision by six GOP lawmakers to side with the Democratic majority in the state Legislature and pass a state budget containing tax increases brought demands for censure from the party's conservative base. State chairman Ron Nehring urged conservatives to cool off and concentrate on growing the party instead. In 2010, when Arnold is termed out, expect eBay exec Meg Whitman and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner -- both suburban, business-oriented, moderate millionaires -- to fight for the Republican gubernatorial nod.

Memorable quote: "We have to get out of the doldrums from the November election. We need to rally people." -- State GOP vice chairman Tom Del Beccaro

Here is the problem, the GOP did not nominate the Governator, they never would and never could have. For those with short political memories the recall was a wide open election with dozens of candidates running against Gray Davis. Schwarzenegger simply won the most votes in an open field with no party primary beforehand. That was the key, Schwarzenegger couldn't have won election to represent the California Republicans for dog catcher, let alone governor. I would suggest that both of the candidates fighting to carry the Republican banner in 2010 will have shot themselves badly in the foot with moderate voters after doing what is required to win a majority of the state's Republicans. The best thing the Republican party could do for itself in the next year is try to become a bit more pragmatic about the budget before people start heading to Sacramento with pitchforks.